John Kasich, left, and Donald Trump, second from right, argue across
fellow candidates during the CNBC Republican presidential debate at the
University of Colorado on Wednesday.
Watching
last night’s Republican debate while the World Series played on another
channel brought to mind the late Yogi Berra, who once described the
blinding sun in Yankee Stadium’s left field this way: “It gets late
early out there.”
Going
into last night’s debate, there was still plenty of time left on the
calendar for any of the party’s governing candidates to incite some
passion among voters and break away from the second-tier blob. But after
months of town halls and diner stops and two previous debates that
seemed to last for about 18 hours each, the odds that any one of these
candidates might suddenly take flight — especially in New Hampshire, where the establishment will likely need to make its stand — seemed to be growing more remote.
It’s
getting late early out there. And there’s a palpable sense of anxiety
among candidates who wonder why they’re running in place, and how long
they have until their window of opportunity starts to close.
I agree with those who thought Marco Rubio had command of the stage last night, dealing a pretty sharp blow
to his friend and fading mentor, Jeb Bush. Back in April, after
interviewing Rubio on the eve of his announcement, I wrote that he would
get a moment like this, and he seems to be seizing it.
But
to this point, he and the rest of the party’s governing candidates —
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Rand Paul — have
remained, for the most part, bunched together in polls, and probably in
the public mind too. And there are reasons for that.
For
one thing, the field is so crowded that it’s hard to get the kind of
exposure a governor or senator might normally take for granted in the
autumn of a primary campaign. When the governors of Ohio
and New Jersey have to shout from the edge of the stage just to force
their way into a debate (and when other governors and senators can’t
even gain admission), it’s no wonder that voters haven’t been able to
differentiate much between them.

And then of course there’s the Trump carnival,
which dominated coverage for an entire summer, forcing all the other
candidates to react. Trump has never held more than a third of the
Republican electorate in Iowa or New Hampshire, according to most polls,
but he’s commanded about 90 percent of the campaign news from both
states.
But
none of that really explains the lack of enthusiasm out there for
anyone who isn’t a builder or a brain surgeon. None of that gets to the
heart of the problem these guys are having — which is what’s missing at
the heart of their campaigns.
If
I went out on the street in Manchester today and asked 20 random people
what Trump’s campaign was about, probably 15 of them would tell me:
“Make America great again.” They’ve seen the hat. They’ve heard the
60-second spiel about how America never wins anymore, which always
strikes me as the most powerful line of the campaign.
We know what Ben Carson’s
big idea is — that only a complete outsider and novice can fix what the
experts in Washington have wrought. (“It’s not brain surgery” would be
his hat.) We know that Carly Fiorina is going to bring a CEO’s acumen to
the White House.
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